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Introduction: Advanced age is an independent risk factor for increased mortality in coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). However, the best method for estimating mortality in elderly patients with COVID-19 is still under debate. We performed this study to assess the shock index (SI) and the modified shock index (MSI) for the abovementioned problem. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted including elderly cases (>= 65 years) confirmed with COVID-19 who admitted to a tertiary university hospital between March-December 2020. The SI and MSI at the time of the emergency department visits were used to evaluate the intensive care unit admission, ventilator support, septic shock, and 30-day mortality in all patients. The receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve (AUC) were used to measure the overall ability of SI and MSI to predict clinical outcomes. Results: We recruited 334 consecutive COVID-19 patients with a mean age of 75.2 +/- 7.3 and an almost equal gender distribution [170 males (50.9%)]. In deceased and surviving patients, the SI was 0.66 +/- 0.16 and 0.6 +/- 0.1 (p=0.014), while the MSI was 0.95 +/- 0.22 and 1.09 +/- 0.34 (p=0.003), respectively. In predicting mortality, the AUC of the SI and MSI were 0.590 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.535 to 0.643] and 0.608 (95% CI: 0.553 to 0.660), respectively. Conclusion: Increased SIs and MSIs are associated with 30-day mortality. SI and MSI can benefit the triage of elderly patients hospitalized for COVID-19. However, it was found that there is no single cut-off value of SI or MSI with optimum accuracy for predicting COVID-19-related clinical outcomes.
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OBJECTIVE: The object of this study was to examine the accuracy in pre-hospital shock index (SI) for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) requirement and 30-day mortality among from COVID-19 patients transported to the hospital by ambulance. METHOD: All consecutive patients who were the age ≥18 years, transported to the emergency department (ED) by ambulance with a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in the pre-hospital frame were included in the study. Four different cut-off points were compared (0.7, 0.8, 0.9, and 1.0) to examine the predictive performance of both the mortality and ICU requirement of the SI. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) was employed to evaluate each cut-off value discriminatory for predicting 30-day mortality and ICU admission. RESULTS: The total of 364 patients was included in this study. The median age in the study population was 69 (55-80), of which 196 were men and 168 were women. AUC values for 30-day mortality outcome were calculated as 0.672, 0.674, 0.755, and 0.626, respectively, for threshold values of 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1.0. ICU admission was more likely for the patients with pre-hospital SI> 0.9. Similarly, the mortality rate was higher in patients with pre-hospital SI> 0.9. CONCLUSION: Early triage of COVID-19 patients will ensure efficient use of healthcare resources. The SI could be a helpful, fast and powerful tool for predicting mortality status and ICU requirements of adult COVID-19 patients. It was concluded that the most useful threshold value for the shock index in predicting the prognosis of COVID-19 patients is 0.9.
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BACKGROUND: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a leading cause of death worldwide. A shock index (SI), modified SI (MSI), delta-SI, and shock index-C (SIC) are known predictors of STEMI. This retrospective cohort study was designed to compare the predictive value of the SI, MSI, delta-SI, and SIC with thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk scales. METHOD: Patients > 20 years old with STEMI who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were included. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with the Youden index was performed to calculate the optimal cutoff values for these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 1552 adult STEMI cases were analyzed. The thresholds for the emergency department (ED) SI, MSI, SIC, and TIMI risk scales for in-hospital mortality were 0.75, 0.97, 21.00, and 5.5, respectively. Accordingly, ED SIC had better predictive power than the ED SI and ED MSI. The predictive power was relatively higher than TIMI risk scales, but the difference did not achieve statistical significance. After adjusting for confounding factors, the ED SI > 0.75, MSI > 0.97, SIC > 21.0, and TIMI risk scales > 5.5 were statistically and significantly associated with in-hospital mortality of STEMI. Compared with the ED SI and MSI, SIC (>21.0) had better sensitivity (67.2%, 95% CI, 58.6-75.9%), specificity (83.5%, 95% CI, 81.6-85.4%), PPV (24.8%, 95% CI, 20.2-29.6%), and NPV (96.9%, 95% CI, 96.0-97.9%) for in-hospital mortality of STEMI. CONCLUSIONS: SIC had better discrimination ability than the SI, MSI, and delta-SI. Compared with the TIMI risk scales, the ACU value of SIC was still higher. Therefore, SIC might be a convenient and rapid tool for predicting the outcome of STEMI.
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OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of shock indexes in terms of mortality in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. METHODS: Hospitalized patients whose COVID-19 reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results were positive, had thoracic computed tomography (CT) scan performed, and had typical thoracic CT findings for COVID-19 were included in the study. RESULTS: Eight hundred one patients were included in the study. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, chronic neurological diseases, chronic renal failure, and a history of malignancy were found to be chronic diseases that were significantly associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. White blood cell, neutrophil, lymphocyte, C reactive protein, creatinine, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, total bilirubin, high sensitive troponin, d-dimer, hemoglobin, and platelet had a statistically significant relationship with in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC) values of shock index (SI), age shock index (aSI), diastolic shock index (dSI), and modified shock index (mSI) calculated to predict mortality were 0.772, 0.745, 0.737, 0.755, and Youden Index J (YJI) values were 0.523, 0.396, 0.436, 0.452, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that SI, dSI, mSI, and aSI are effective in predicting in-hospital mortality.
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Aim: To meet the increasing intensive care and mechanical ventilator needs during the COVID-19 pandemic process, parameters that will enable rapid assessment and decision-making at the bedside are required in emergency services. The aim is to provide rational use of intensive care units by determining appropriate parameters that can be used to evaluate the intensive care follow-up indication. Material and Methods: Demographic data,vital signs, and hemogram results were recorded during the consultation in terms of intensive care follow-up requirements of the patients. The qSOFA, shock index, modified shock index, and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio were calculated. Results: Three hundred patients were included in the study.The median age was 69.2 years, 88% of the patients had at least one comorbid disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio was significant in predicting the need for intubation, but is not an independent risk factor. Male gender, qSOFA scores and need for intubation were predictors of intensive care mortality. Discussion: We found out that no scoring system can predict the requirement of intubation, but qSOFA is effective in showing mortality when making intensive care follow-up decisions for COVID-19 patients consulted in emergency departments.
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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of shock index (SI) and modified shock index (mSI) in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement and in-hospital mortality among coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients who are admitted to the emergency department (ED). Likewise, the effects of patients' conditions such as age, gender, and comorbidity on prognosis will be analyzed. METHODS: The files were retrospectively scanned for all COVID-19 patients over the age of 18 years who were admitted to the ED and hospitalized between January 1, 2021, and March 15, 2021. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess each scoring system discriminatory for predicting in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. RESULTS: There were 464 patients included in this study. The mean age of the patients was 62.4 ± 16.7, of which 245 were men and 219 were women. The most common comorbidity in patients was hypertension (200; 43.1%), followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (174; 37.5%), and coronary artery disease (154; 33.2%). In terms of in-hospital mortality, the AUC of SI, and mSI were 0.719 and 0.739, respectively. In terms of an ICU requirement, the AUC of SI, and mSI were 0.704 and 0.729, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this study, it was concluded that SI and mSI are useful in predicting in-hospital mortality and ICU requirement in COVID-19 patients. In addition, another important result of the study is that advanced age, male gender, and hypertension may be associated with a poor prognosis.
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COVID-19 , Hypertension , Shock , Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , COVID-19/epidemiology , Heart Rate , Shock/diagnosis , Shock/epidemiology , Severity of Illness Index , Intensive Care UnitsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak has put an unprecedented strain on Emergency Departments (EDs) and other critical care resources. Early detection of patients that are at high risk of clinical deterioration and require intensive monitoring, is key in ED evaluation and disposition. A rapid and easy risk-stratification tool could aid clinicians in early decision making. The Shock Index (SI: heart rate/systolic blood pressure) proved useful in detecting hemodynamic instability in sepsis and myocardial infarction patients. In this study we aim to determine whether SI is discriminative for ICU admission and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Retrospective, observational, single-center study. All patients ≥18 years old who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (defined as: positive result on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test) between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020 were included for analysis. Data were collected from electronic medical patient records and stored in a protected database. ED shock index was calculated and analyzed for its discriminative value on in-hospital mortality and ICU admission by a ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: In total, 411 patients were included. Of all patients 249 (61%) were male. ICU admission was observed in 92 patients (22%). Of these, 37 patients (40%) died in the ICU. Total in-hospital mortality was 28% (114 patients). For in-hospital mortality the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.86 was not discriminative (AUC 0.49 (95% CI: 0.43-0.56)), with a sensitivity of 12.3% and specificity of 93.6%. For ICU admission the optimal cut-off SI ≥ 0.57 was also not discriminative (AUC 0.56 (95% CI: 0.49-0.62)), with a sensitivity of 78.3% and a specificity of 34.2%. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, SI measured at ED presentation was not discriminative for ICU admission and was not useful for early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration.